RD BK BLCK SWAN

seemingly random events, which often have profound consequences for the individual and even for societies on the whole, “Black Swans.”

knowing what you don’t know” can save you from losing your life savings.

Black Swans” are events thought to lie outside the realm of possibility, and yet happen anyway.

As human beings, we are particularly good at turning all of the stimuli from our environment into meaningful information. This is a talent that has allowed us to create the scientific method, philosophize about the nature of being, and invent complex mathematical models.

How, for example, is it possible to understand medicine if you’re not aware that germs exist? You might come up with a sensible explanation for illness but it will be flawed by a lack of crucial information.

We’re sometimes surprised by events not because they’re random, but because our outlook is too narrow. Such surprises are known as “Black Swans,” and they can prompt us to fundamentally reconsider our worldview:

We are very easily fooled by even the most basic of logical fallacies